EU Corporate Credit Watch June: Growth improves, Gap narrows
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We have taken a look at Corporate Loan Growth in the Eurozone for June 2014 using our proprietary EU Credit Benchmark Model.
Our main findings include:
– Eurozone corporate loan growth further improved in June to -2.3% yoy from -2.6% yoy in May
– Though still negative this is a relatively strong improvement of growth compared to the recent cyclical low in August 2013 (-3.8% yoy). It is also the best growth rate since 12/2012
– The growth gap between North+ and South+ countries narrowed to 7.1% (based on yoy loan growth) from 7.3% in the previous month. However, we are not yet getting overly excited about the gap narrowing, as it is well within usual monthly volatility
– It is remarkable that mom growth for Eurozone corporate lending was already positive at 1.3% (annualised, not seasonally adjusted). Again, we would caution about monthly volatility
– We will closely monitor how recent geopolitical woes will impact GDP and loan growth in the months to come
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